Report: Newspaper advertising expected to rise in 2011

By David Silverberg

A new report on newspaper advertising and operations is dubbing 2011 “the year of return to positive growth.” Respondents to a survey expect digital advertising to rise 18.1 percent among North American newspapers.

While 2010 might have been a gloomy year for newspaper advertising, a new report says 2011 should see an uptick in advertising on most fronts. The extensive Preview 2011[PDF] report from Kubas Primedia in Toronto surveyed more than 400 newspapers in Canada and the U.S., and concluded “improvement is expected in all categories of newspaper advertising revenue in 2011.”

The biggest growth area will be digital. In 2011, Kubas projects digital ad revenue will rise 18.1 percent, compared to the next highest category, retail display at 4.3 percent. On the flip side, National display advertising is expected to decrease by 1.4 percent and real estate classified will sink by 1.7 percent. Overall, advertising in all categories will rise by 3.4 percent (based on a weighted average).

In Canada, digital ad revenue will rise slightly more compared to its U.S. counterparts (although no specific numbers were given). Also, “Canadian newspapers are more optimistic about both national and display advertising, but more pessimistic in most classified categories, as compared to U.S. newspapers.”

In an interview with Kubas executive vice-president Ed Strapagiel, Future of Media learned Canadian newspapers are in better shape than American media outlets. “A lot of Canadian newspapers are hanging in there, they have trimmed staff and cut costs and I don’t know of too many cases of imminent closures,” he says.

The survey found smaller circulation U.S newspapers (under 25,000) tended to more optimistic in most categories, except for digital.

The report stated digital ad growth is seen as a driver of the overall advertising climate. Strapagiel explains expectations for digital ad revenue is higher than any other category, and newspaper often link digital growth to print growth.

The Kubas survey also looked at operating initiatives, such as cost. An area where newspapers on both sides of the border want to strengthen is their website features and design. Also, many newspapers have completed plans to narrow the width and shorten the newspaper pages’ cut-off.

Strapagiel surveyed newspapers on their plans to charge website visitors for content. Fifteen percent of outlets have plans to start charging for online content, and 36 percent are considering the idea.

Strapagiel notes Canadians were 50 percent less likely to charge for content compared to American newspapers.

Since the data in the report is based on the respondents expectations, are media executives over-optimistic? Strapagiel says newspaper executives tend to have “this online-will-save-our-bacon attitude which is probably not justified.” In his 2010 Preview, respondents were also unrealistic about digital advertising’s potential. “eReaders and iPads are certainly perking up digital possibilities but it’s difficult to know how much or when these technologies will pay off for newspapers,” Strapagiel says.

‘Newspaper Extinction Timeline’ gives predictions on death of newspapers globally

By Chris Hogg

When will newspapers die off in your country? In the United States, they’ll be gone in seven years. In the UK and Iceland, they’ll be extinct in nine years. In Canada, the printed newspaper will go the way of the dodo in eight years.

These predictions come from futurist Ross Dawson, who has published these dates and more in a “Newspaper Extinction Timeline” (opens in PDF). According to a press release, the timeline is backed by media industry think-tank Future Exploration Network and it specifies the number of years before “newspapers in their current form will become insignificant.”

“In the developed world newspapers are in the process of becoming extinct, driven by rapidly changing use of media and revenues out of line with cost structures,” said Dawson in the news release. “These pressures will be compounded by the rise of tablet devices and the coming availability of low-cost digital paper with exceptional qualities.”

The timeline predicts newspapers will be “insignificant” in 52 countries by 2040 in the developed world, but growth will remain constant everywhere else.

“In stark contrast, in many developing countries newspapers are growing rapidly,” said Dawson. ”This is resulting in a rapid divergence in media markets around the world, changing how marketers build global campaigns.”

The infographic is below, and a larger version including key factors can be found here (PDF).

[Via chrishogg.me]

Toronto Star uses Groupon to drive subscriptions

By Chris Hogg

As the debate and discussion about the future of print media continues, the Toronto Star is moving to social media and the Web to promote its printed edition through a partnership with Groupon.

Groupon is the leading deal-of-the-day site that offers group discounts on everything from spa services, to restaurant deals, to discounts at major retailers and more. Deals are offered to members by email and through social media.

Today, the Toronto Star is being featured on Groupon with a deal that offers people the chance to get a six-month subscription to the Saturday edition of the Toronto Star for $15 (regular priced $37).

A two-year-old start-up, Groupon is the fastest-growing company in Web history, generating more than $500 million in revenue this year according to Forbes. Valued at $1.35 billion, Groupon has seen competitors and copy-cat sites crop up in markets all over the world in an effort to cash-in on the group-buying craze.

In fact, the growing popularity of group-buying sites prompted Torstar Digital, the company’s digital arm, to acquire Groupon competitor WagJag recently.

With Groupon’s massive reach and proven track record for selling, it’s no surprise the Toronto Star is looking for Groupon to help drive subscription numbers.

The ironic part of this deal is that companies used to turn to newspapers to get their message far and wide, and now newspapers are turning to a start-up to achieve the same exposure.

—

This blog post is part of the Future of Media‘s ongoing coverage and examination of what’s happening in the media around the world. If you have a story idea, please contact us. This blog post was originally posted on chrishogg.me.